Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Gold slips on strong dollar, Europe uncertainty Read more : spot gold,nymex,comex,gold futures


SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : Gold prices eased Wednesday after an overnight jump as conflicting reports about Europe’s debt crisis battle created uncertainty in the market.

Gold for immediate delivery was seen trading at $1636.04 an ounce at 12.30 p.m Singapore time while US gold for December delivery was at $1648.07 an ounce on the comex division of Nymex.

Analysts said market uncertainties returned after conflicting reports about the success of European efforts to fight debt crisis came in. that put investors to remain cautious.

The bullion is likely to remain steady during the day as markets are unlikey to witness any bargain hunting until a clear picture available.

Meanwhile a recovering dollar also affected gold’s gains as the dollar rose 0.4 per cent against a basket of currencies, which in theory should weigh on commodities priced in the greenback such as oil and industrial metals.

On Tuesday, Gold futures gained the most in seven weeks as commodities and equities rallied amid optimism that European leaders will take steps to resolve the region’s debt crisis.

Spot gold closed trading at $1647.25 an ounce.

US gold for December delivery ended at $1,649.00 an ounce while December Comex Silver closed at $31.66 an ounce.

Monday, September 26, 2011

sep27 afternoon strategy


GOLD (Spot) intraday: continuation of the rebound.

Pivot: 1612.00
Our Preference: LONG positions above 1612 with 1673 & 1690 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1612 will call for a slide towards 1565 & 1530.
Comment: the price is shaping a V bottom, calling for an up turn.

kantipur sep 26 aritical of commodities market


Gold Eyes Biggest 3-Day Fall in 28 Years, Investors Flee

Gold was set for its biggest three-day loss in 28 years on Monday, as investors fled commodity markets in a scramble to secure cash in the face of mounting fear over the impact of a potential Greek debt default on the rest of the euro zone.


Tetra Images | Getty Images

European policymakers began working on new ways to stop fallout from Greece's near-bankruptcy from inflicting more damage on the world economy after stinging criticism for failing to stem the debt crisis.

European equities fell, while industrial commodities such as crude oil [LCOCV1 104.79 0.82 (+0.79%) ] and base metals bore the brunt of investor desire for cash in the face of mounting uncertainty.

In the last three days alone, gold has fallen by nearly 10 percent in its largest three-day slide since February 1983 and implied volatility has risen to a 2-1/2 year high.

Spot gold [XAU= 1631.04 -25.99 (-1.57%) ] was last down 3.0 percent on the day at $1,621.49 an ounce, having fallen earlier by as much as 7.4 percent, putting the difference between the intraday high and low at $128.40, the largest daily price swing on record.

"It shows you that at times of extreme stress, there is not a suitable substitute to liquidity and although gold is liquid by metal standards, in comparison to treasuries, when you get this kind of flight to cash, then it really is cash that counts and that means U.S. dollars," said Credit Suisse analyst Tom Kendall.


RELATED LINKS
Gartman: Wait for Gold to Trade $1,695, Then BuyGartman on the Coppper Crash A Gold Rush Wanes as Hedge Funds Sell
"The markets are going to continue to react this week to the political situation within Europe and I don't see any quick resolution or stimulus coming to the markets."

After a weekend of being told by the United States, China and other countries that they must get more aggressive in their crisis response, European officials focused on ways to beef up their existing 440 billion-euro rescue fund.

Deep differences remained over whether the European Central Bank should commit more of its massive resources to shoring up Europe's banks and help struggling euro zone member countries.

Investors Run

The lack of consensus on a lasting solution to the euro zone debt crisis has been a major driver in this year's rise in the gold price to record highs above $1,900 an ounce.

"The rise in volatility taking place in the gold price was clearly an indication that gold was no longer a low-risk asset.

So there are a few signs there that would have given you pause for thought, but inevitably when the move happens, everyone is taken a little bit by surprise," said Natixis commodities strategist Nic Brown.

"I would suggest that part of what is happening is a collective move away from commodities by investors.

The fact that there is carnage going on across the commodities spectrum indicates there are a fair few investors who are getting cold feet at this stage and that has hit some precious metals disproportionately," he said.

Last week's data on investment in U.S. gold futures shows specualtors cut their holdings to their lowest level in over two years, as reflected by the fall in net non-commercial open interest on COMEX.

Short-term interest rates on dollars and other major currencies, have shot up this month, as banks have become increasingly unwilling to extend funding to each other because of fears over their individual exposure to the debt of the peripheral euro zone nations.

Gold is often sold off as a means of raising dollars when funding conditions deteriorate, much as they did in late 2008 with the onset of the credit crunch that ensued from banks witholding lending because of their concern over counterparty exposure to toxic U.S. mortgage-backed assets.

"Gold is one of the few assets that remains in positive territory this year, in a sense it is one of the last assets standing, and because of this as investors head for cash they sell the assets that have performed.

Essentially gold is a victim of its own success as liquidity trumps," wrote UBS analyts Edel Tully in a note.

Silver came under fire, falling by as much as 16 percent at one point in the day and set for its worst three-day fall on record, having lost more than 25 percent in this period.

The spot price [XAG= 28.90 -2.14 (-6.89%) ] was last down 4.9 percent at $29.54 an ounce, its lowest since last November.

Platinum [XPT= 1558.25 -47.03 (-2.93%) ] fell by more than 3 percent to $1,543.75 an ounce, its lowest since May last year, while palladium [XPD= 637.50 5.97 (+0.95%) ] fell 0.3 percent to $627.97 an ounce, its lowest since last October.

Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.

Spot Gold Falls 1 Pct as Recession Fear Prevails

By: Reuters
Spot gold prices fell more than 1 percent on Monday, extending their loss of 4.6 percent in the previous session, amid wide-spread anxiety about prospects for a global recession as investors cautiously watch European leaders seek new ways to solve the euro zone debt crisis.


Tetra Images | Getty Images
Prices of other precious metals also tumbled, led by a 5.3-percent drop in spot silver. The metal, with the dual nature of a precious and industrial metal, fell to its lowest in 7-1/2 months, at $29.39.

The dollar held steady against a basket of currencies [.DXY 78.60 0.10 (+0.13%) ], after rallying nearly 6 percent so far this month as investors fled risky assets to seek safe haven appeal in the greenback.

"The dollar still has room to strengthen more in the short term because the fear of crisis is not over," said Dominic Schnider, head of commodity research of UBS Wealth Management in Singapore.

A stronger dollar would pressure gold priced in the greenback, as it becomes more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

Schnider said gold could fall towards $1,582 in the short term, but remained bullish on the longer-term prospects.

"Our goal at $2,000 remains in place. The structural factors behind high gold prices are still there, but in the short term, we have to acknowledge that if everything collapses, it is tough for gold to advance."

Spot gold [XAU= 1567.90 -89.13 (-5.38%) ] fell as much as 1.6 percent to $1,629.89 an ounce, before recovering to $1,633.79 by 0322 GMT. It suffered a decline of 8.6 percent last week, its sharpest such drop in more than 28 years.

U.S. gold [GCCV1 1550.90 -88.90 (-5.42%) ] edged down 0.2 percent to $1,636.70 an ounce, after suffering its biggest daily drop in more than five years on Friday with a fall of 5.9 percent.

Speculators cut bullish bets in gold futures and options for the sixth time in seven weeks in the week ended Sept. 20, as the price of bullion continued to unravel from its record.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, the CME Group raised margin requirements on gold, silver and copper futures contracts on Friday after market volatility rose dramatically in the past few weeks.


RELATED LINKS
"Retail punters are scared," said a Singapore-based trader,

"There is a big dollar buying frenzy now, which is dragging everything down and people have to liquidate just like 2008."

In 2008, spot gold prices initially shot up after Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, but soon tumbled more than 25 percent within two weeks in October.

Spot silver [XAG= 28.71 -2.33 (-7.51%) ] traded down 4.6 percent to $29.61.

Spot platinum [XPT= 1519.99 -85.29 (-5.31%) ] dropped to a one-year low of $1,554.75, and recovered to $1,561.74.

Spot palladium [XPD= 611.49 -20.04 (-3.17%) ] dipped to an 11-month low of $620.93.

Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.

Friday, September 23, 2011

Silver may reach $25/oz if Greece defaults’


By Rakesh Neelakandan
Which commodity would be the worst casualty if Greece defaults?

“Industrial metals”, pat came the reply from Bitupen Majumdar, commodity analyst with JRG. Manufacturing activities in Europe and China may get affected on Greece default, he added.

Gold & Silver

“Gold would witness further slide in the event of Greek default as the downtrend in other commodities would prompt investors to liquidate positions in gold.” He added. “And Silver may reach $25/oz in 1.5-2 months”, he said.

Rupee slide

Greece default would also mean a temporary surge in dollar demand, according to Martin Patrick, a Kochi based economist.

“This means a further slide in rupee and strengthening of dollar.” Martin said.

When dollar climbs, commodities generally fall.

Psychological effect

Greece default may also stifle interbank lending process as well, Martin said.

“It would have more of psychological effect, than economic”, he added.

And that could worsen the rout in commodities.